This category is not strong at all, with only three sure things who aren’t really at risk of being left off due to the lack of competition. That would be Golden Globe winners Austin Butler (Elvis) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Critics Choice victor Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Though his film has no buzz outside of expected BAFTA longlist support, Bill Nighy (Living) looks to be on track for his first Oscar nomination. After that, things are murkier. Hugh Jackman (The Son), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) were selected by the Golden Globes. One high-profile pick, Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), and one indie breakout, Paul Mescal (Aftersun), were nominated by the Critics Choice Awards and appear on the BAFTA longlist. Mescal did earn a BAFTA nod along with another great choice with basically no shot, Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande). The Screen Actors Guild chose a surprising pick, Adam Sandler (Hustle), who could end up as a first-time Oscar nominee for a role that few saw coming. Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) might also get in for a late-breaking but well-received film. Is there a major surprise waiting in the wings here?

Predictions: Butler, Farrell, Fraser, Mescal, Nighy