Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Variance Films

This category is back to exactly ten nominees this year. There are a few safe bets who might struggle in other categories but certainly won’t miss here, like The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, Elvis, and Tár. Beyond that, there’s room for unpredictability. 

Will sequels like Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever follow in the paths of their predecessors, and can Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery best its original to place here? Can Babylon and The Whaleovercome divisive reviews to earn a spot? What does Women Talkinghave to do to get nominated? Is Aftersun too small to get nominated, and will The Woman Kingor Triangle of Sadness make the cut?

International films have also been popular recently. All Quiet on the WesternFront had a superb showing when the shortlists were unveiled and is the BAFTA nominations leader. Decision to Leave has plenty of buzz and earned some top BAFTA bids. And RRR isn’t eligible for Best International Feature, which means this is how voters can reward it.

Predictions: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, RRR, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking

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