The Screen Actors Guild will hand out its prizes for the best of 2022 on Sunday, February 26^th. Read below for a category-by-category analysis and come back soon to see our picks for the TV races.

Male Actor in a Leading Role

This is the first individual nomination for all five actors, and three of them have been recognized exactly once each for ensemble work. Austin Butler (Elvis), who took home the Golden Globe prize for drama lead actor and the BAFTA, was an honoree for being part of the Once Upon a Time in Hollywood cast in 2019. Brendan Fraser (The Whale), who won the Critics Choice Award, was in the winning ensemble of Crash in 2005. The other past nominee is Bill Nighy (Living), recognized as part of the cast of The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel in 2012. This is the first nomination for Adam Sandler (Hustle), and also for Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin). Farrell, the Golden Globe winner for lead comedy actor, is the only one of these men also nominated as part of his ensemble. In a three-way race between Butler, Farrell, and Fraser, it’s not clear who’s ahead, and it could easily be any of them.

Should win: Fraser

Will win: Fraser

Alternate: Butler

Female Actor in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett (Tár) is a frequent SAG nominee, with ten past individual nominations plus ensemble bids for six other projects. She won for The Aviator in 2004 and Blue Jasmine in 2013, and looks set to win here again after victories from the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Association, and BAFTA. Though she hasn’t been nominated quite as much, Viola Davis (The Woman King) has a formidable SAG track record. From her six individual nominations, she’s won five times: twice for How to Get Away with Murder, and for her film turns in The Help, Fences, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), the Golden Globe winner for comedy lead actress, was previously nominated as part of the Crazy Rich Asians cast in 2018 and is the only performer in this category also nominated as part of her ensemble. This is the first nomination for both Ana de Armas (Blonde) and Danielle Deadwyler (Till). While Blanchett is ahead, Yeoh could easily win too, and it’s also possible that SAG voters will choose to reward Deadwyler expressly because she isn’t nominated at the Oscars.

Should win: Yeoh

Will win: Blanchett

Alternate: Yeoh

Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) won previously for The Theory of Everything         in 2014 and as part of the cast of The Trial of the Chicago 7 in 2020. He was also nominated for The Danish Girl in 2015 and as part of the ensembles of Les Miserables in 2012 and The Theory of Everything. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) won along with the Little Miss Sunshine ensemble in 2006 and was nominated as part of the 12 Years a Slave ensemble in 2013. This is the first nomination for Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), who was been cleaning up with precursor prizes this season (though Keoghan did score a surprise BAFTA win). Only Redmayne is not also nominated as part of his ensemble this year. On the four previous occasions of double nominees from one film in this category, neither actor has ever won.

Should win: Quan

Will win: Quan

Altenate: Gleeson

Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), this year’s Golden Globe and Critics Choice winner, won along with the ensemble of the first Black Panther and was individually nominated for Ruby’s Bucket of Blood in 2001 and Betty and Coretta in 2013. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) was nominated in the first year of the SAG Awards’ existence, 1994, for True Lies, and Hong Chau (The Whale) was nominated in 2017 for Downsizing. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) was nominated in 2019 as part of the ensemble of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. This is the first nomination for Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), who won the BAFTA. Condon, Curtis, and Hsu are also nominated as part of their ensembles. From the ten previous occasions of double nominees from one film in this category, one has triumphed three times.

Should win: Hsu

Will win: Bassett

Altenate: Curtis

Cast in a Motion Picture

Two of this year’s nominees have four performers individually nominated: Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin, whose entire recognized ensemble includes just those four people. The Fabelmans has two cast members individually honored, while Babylon and Women Talking have none. Winning in the latter scenario is virtually unheard of, though the first Black Panther pulled off that feat in 2018. The two films with the most nominations also happen to be duking it out at most awards shows for the top prize, and either one could easily win here.

Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Altenate: The Banshees of Inisherin