At the nominations phase, this category was unpredictable, and that’s even more the case now than it was then. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), the only previous Oscar nominee – for What’s Love Got to Do With It in 1993 – got an early start with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. But then Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) won the BAFTA, and Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) took home the SAG Award for the film that’s looking increasingly difficult to beat. It’s a shame that Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) doesn’t seem to have a shot, despite winning a breakthrough prize at the Spirit Awards. And Hong Chau (The Whale) will surely have support as well. The question at this point is whether Bassett or Curtis has the stronger unrewarded legacy with Oscar voters, and it’s a very close race. And it could just as easily be Condon, who would be a lovely and worthwhile choice too.

Should win: Stephanie Hsu

Will win: Angela Bassett

Alternate: Jamie Lee Curtis