The Golden Globes are back this year with a televised ceremony and one major indicator of which films and performers might be ahead in the Oscar race. The division between comedy and drama makes things particularly interesting this year since certain presumed Oscar frontrunners won’t be facing off against each other. Let’s dive in below with a closer look at each category.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Austin Butler (Elvis)

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Hugh Jackman (The Son)

Bill Nighy (Living)

Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

There’s only one performer in this category whose film earned any other nominations, and that’s Butler. This is a definitely a race between him and Fraser, whose performance may just be enough to overcome his film’s absence in other categories and his own expressed boycott of this organization. The only returning nominees in this field are Jackman and Nighy, but their previous bids have all for come for comedy/musicals and television, respectively.

Should Win: Fraser

Will Win: Fraser

Alternate: Butler

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

Viola Davis (The Woman King)

Ana De Armas (Blonde)

Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Two fun facts about this category: all five women are returning nominees, and one of Williams’ past wins was for playing Marilyn Monroe, who this year is portrayed by De Armas. Blanchett has three wins out of eleven previous bids, while Colman is a nominee for the fifth year in a row (she won on the first three tries). It’s possible that Globe voters will go for Williams and her film, but if not, this category has a very likely frontrunner.

Should Win: Blanchett

Will Win: Blanchett

Alternate: Williams

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

Diego Calva (Babylon)

Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Adam Driver (White Noise)

Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

Calva is the only newbie to this race, while Craig returns for his second-ever bid, which is also his second for playing the role of Benoit Blanc. The only previous winner is this year’s near-locked choice, Farrell, whose 2008 trophy came for a previous collaboration with Martin McDonagh. While he’ll face steep competition at the Oscars, Farrell should have little trouble winning here.

Should Win: Driver

Will Win: Farrell

Alternate: Calva

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)

Margot Robbie (Babylon)

Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu)

Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)

Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

It’s a good thing that Thompson, who has ten previous nominations, did get nominated after her film was initially going to qualify over the course of awards season as a TV movie due to its premiere on Hulu. While Robbie could benefit from enthusiasm for her film and Taylor-Joy is hot after a win two years ago for The Queen’s Gambit, this should be an easy way to reward a long-working and terrific actress, Yeoh, giving her a helpful boost in her path towards a potential Oscar win.

Should Win: Yeoh

Will Win: Yeoh

Alternate: Robbie

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Brad Pitt (Babylon)

Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Pitt is a six-time previous nominee with two wins and Redmayne previously picked up a trophy for The Theory of Everything, but neither are likely to factor much into the race this year. This will be a crucial test for Quan to continue his extensive haul of wins this awards season as he comes up against someone who has internal competition: Gleeson. The last time he faced a costar, one of his two nominations for McDonagh brothers projects, he lost to his costar Colin Farrell. He was also nominated twice for playing world leaders, and this role is likely to get him closest to winning.

Should Win: Quan

Will Win: Quan

Alternate: Gleeson

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)

Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Both Bassett and Curtis won prizes three decades ago, while Mulligan is a more recent nominee who hasn’t won yet. Based on what critics’ groups and other awards bodies have doled out so far, it feels that Condon is the definitive frontrunner. But Bassett could also upset, as could De Leon.

Should Win: Condon

Will Win: Condon

Alternate: De Leon

Best Original Score

Carter Burwell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Alexandre Desplat (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)

Hildur Guðnadóttir (Women Talking)

Justin Hurwitz (Babylon)

John Williams (The Fabelmans)

This category is made up entirely of previous nominees, and, aside from Burwell, who has three previous bids, all previous winners. Williams is a legend with twenty-four nods and four wins, two of which were among the ten collaborations with Steven Spielberg that earned him nominations. Desplat also won for his last time working with Guillermo Del Toro, but it’s hard to beat the man who’s gone for two for two on recognition for Damien Chazelle films: Hurwitz.

Should Win: Hurwitz

Will Win: Hurwitz

Alternate: Guðnadóttir

Best Original Song

Taylor Swift – “Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing)

Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz & Guillermo del Toro – “Ciao Papa” (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio)

Lady Gaga and Michael Tucker – “Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)

Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler & Ludwig Göransson – “Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

M. M. Keeravani, Kaala Bhairava & Rahul Sipligunj – “Naatu Naatu” (RRR)

These are all worthwhile songs, and in some cases, represent the first bids for nominees in this category, like Desplat, Del Toro, and Göransson. Swift has three previous nominations and Gaga has two, including a win for “Shallow.” While this category often includes tunes from films not otherwise cited, only Where the Crawdads Sing appears just here. While I think it’s hard to vote for anything over the absolutely superb “Naatu Natu,” I do think that Globe voters might opt for something a bit more standard.

Should Win: “Naatu Naatu”

Will Win: “Hold My Hand”

Alternate: “Naatu Naatu”

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Close (Belgium)

Decision to Leave (South Korea)

RRR (India)

Germany, Belgium, and South Korea have won this prize before. RRR, the only film with another nomination (song), is also the only film that isn’t its country’s official Oscar submission. The other four are on the corresponding Oscar shortlist. While it’s possible that Decision to Leave could eke out a win, this is likely a battle between the all-serious German war film and the tremendously fun Indian epic.

Should Win: RRR

Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Alternate: RRR

Best Animated Film

Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Inu-oh

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

It’s probably not a great idea to underestimate Turning Red since Pixar has won more than half of the prizes awarded in this category’s relatively brief existence. Dreamworks is also a powerhouse, with ten previous nominations and a win for How to Train Your Dragon 2, plus the first Puss in Boots was nominated back in 2012. I don’t think it’s likely that anything except the acclaimed Guillermo Del Toro take on a classic tale takes this home.

Should Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Alternate: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Best Screenplay

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Todd Field (Tár)

Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

The only previous winner in this category is McDonagh, who triumphed in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Kushner was cited for two Spielberg screenplays, Munich and Lincoln, while the director himself was only ever nominated in this race for Close Encounters of the Third Kind forty-five years ago. Field contended for Little Children. All these films have their directors nominated as writers as well. From the two that aren’t also nominated in that race this year, Field’s film contends for the top prize and Polley’s doesn’t, nominated only here and for its score.

Should Win: Women Talking

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director

James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)

Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)

Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Spielberg is a favorite in this category, with thirteen previous bids in this category including last year for West Side Story, and wins for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan. Cameron, however, has gone two for two, winning for both Titanic and the first Avatar. McDonagh was previously nominated for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Luhrmann for Moulin Rouge. All five films are up for the respective top prizes.

Should Win: The Daniels

Will Win: Spielberg

Alternate: Cameron

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Avatar: The Way of Water

Elvis

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Fabelmans is the drama nominations leader with five. Only The Fabelmans is nominated for directing, writing, and acting, with Top Gun: Maverick nominated for none of them. The first Avatar won this prize in 2009. Since two of the likely top Best Picture contenders are in the Comedy/Musical category, this should be an easy choice for voters.

Should Win: The Fabelmans

Will Win: The Fabelmans

Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Triangle of Sadness

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Babylon are the nominations leader, with eight, six, and five bids each, with Banshees and EEAAO nominated for Best Director. The first Knives Out was nominated in this category three years ago. Musicals do often win this prize, most recently last year with West Side Story.

Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Come back soon for our TV predictions. In the meantime, who are you rooting for?