The American Cinema Editors won’t announce their nominees for the ACE Eddie Awards until February 1^st, more than a week after Oscar nominations, meaning that their ten nominees in the dramatic and comedy categories won’t be helpful in figuring out who’s ahead in the Oscar race. This category has recently leaned away from honoring only Best Picture nominees, even in the years of an expanded field of top-honored films. From the likely Best Picture contenders, Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick feel like the surest things. The Banshees of Inisherin and Elvis might be in good shape too, as good Avatar: The Way of Water, Tár, The Woman King, and The Fabelmans. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is definitely more of a longshot, and it’s important to consider foreign films like RRR, All Quiet on the Western Front and Decision to Leave. Babylon might be a tougher sell given its excessive runtime and mixed reviews, and BAFTA longlist picks Moonage Daydream and Triangle of Sadness would definitely both constitute surprises.

Predictions: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick