This category has fifteen films in contention following the release last month of the official Oscar shortlists. All five Golden Globe picks and the sixth selection from the Critics Choice Association appear on that list. Globe winner Naatu Naatu (RRR) feels safest, and it’s hard to imagine Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick) or Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) being left off either. Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing) is more vulnerable because the film won’t get any other nominations, which is also probably true for CCA pick New Body Rhumba (White Noise). Ciao Papa (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio) is associated with a popular film but isn’t its most impressive asset. Stand Up (Till) and Til You’re Home (A Man Called Otto) are likeliest to join the lineup. Applause (Tell it Like a Woman) and Dust and Ash (The Voice of Dust and Ash) both come from Oscar-friendly artists in films few people will have seen, which may not be all that much of a hurdle. Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength) (Avatar: The Way of Water) and This is a Life (Everything Everywhere All at Once) both benefit from being in popular films, while Time (Amsterdam) does not. Good Afternoon (Spirited) is a wild card that voters might endorse if they’re in the mood for something fun, while My Mind and Me (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) isn’t likely to score a spot unless Gomez has a lot of fans among Oscar voters.

Predictions: Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Ciao Papa (Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio), Til You’re Home (A Man Called Otto), Naatu Naatu (RRR), Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)