This category has fifteen films in contention following the release last month of the official Oscar shortlists. It’s distinctly possible that the entire Golden Globe lineup could transfer to the Oscar race, though that doesn’t typically happen. Globe winner Babylon feels like a sure thing, but so did Justin Hurwitz’s last Globe win, First Man, which resulted in a snub. Legend John Williams should be safe for The Fabelmans, and, even if it gets very few other nominations, which sadly appears to be likely, Women Talking should get in here. The Banshees of Inisherin and Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio also both stand a solid chance at Oscar nods. The question is which of the remaining ten finalists are likeliest to bump them. The Critics Choice Association omitted Banshees but its other two picks, The Batman and Tár, aren’t on the Oscar shortlist. Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever have Oscar legacies, with a nomination and a win, respectively, for their predecessors in this category. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery would be a surprise given that the first film wasn’t even shortlisted, and Nope feels like a real longshot since it’s a genre film. Everything Everywhere All at Once and All Quiet on the Western Front will have the most heat in other categories, which could help here, while support will also exist for The Woman King and She Said. Devotion and Don’t Worry Darling aren’t likely to get any other bids and garnering enough support in this race will be an uphill battle. It may just be the Globe list translating in full.

Predictions: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking