As things stood before nominations were announced, this category is among the safest, with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) all but guaranteed to win after taking home nearly every prize this awards season. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) did win the BAFTA, but he’ll have to contend with his own costar Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), and there’s simply not enough working against Quan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) is the only previous nominee, last recognized way back in 1980 for Ordinary People when he lost to his costar Timothy Hutton. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) is the only nominee without other representation for his film, so it’s hard to imagine him mustering enough votes to affect the race (though he is quite good).

Should win: Ke Huy Quan

Will win: Ke Huy Quan

Alternate: Barry Keoghan