This category has come down to a two-person competition. Will it be Cate Blanchett (Tár), a two-time Oscar winner, for The Aviator and Blue Jasmine, with five additional nominations who won the BAFTA, Critics Choice Award, and Golden Globe? Or first-time nominee Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), who surged after an early Globe win and recently won the SAG Award. There were some rumblings that Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) could turn her starting nomination into a win, and it is possible that she could end up the unlikely victor if the two frontrunners split the vote. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) is a past nominee, with previous bids for Brokeback Mountain, Blue Valentine, My Week with Marilyn, and Manchester by the Sea, but her film doesn’t have nearly enough buzz for her to win this time. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is the final nominee, whose film was so divisive that her getting enough voters doesn’t feel possible.

Should win: Michelle Yeoh

Will win: Michelle Yeoh

Alternate: Cate Blanchett