Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Actor

Paul Mescal in Aftersun. Courtesy A24

This category boasts a legitimate race in a field of all first-time nominees. Austin Butler (Elvis) has taken home the BAFTA and the Golden Globe, and his film is a Best Picture nominee. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) won the SAG and the Critics Choice Award, and his film isn’t in the Best Picture lineup. Early on, critical favorite and Globe winner Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) seemed distinctly possible too, but his victory is unlikely at this point. Bill Nighy (Living) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) will surely have their fans too, but either of them winning would be a real shock.

Should win: Brendan Fraser

Will win: Brendan Fraser

Alternate: Austin Butler

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