All six men in this race are also nominated for penning the original screenplays to their films. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) has two past wins, for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan, plus nominations for Close Encounters of the Third Kind, E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial, Munich, Lincoln, and last year for West Side Story. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) was nominated in 2017 for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Todd Field (Tár) has previous screenplay nominations for In the Bedroom and Little Children, while Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) saw his film The Square in contention for Best International Feature in 2017. Odds are currently favoring first-time nominees Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once), who won the Producers Guild of America Award and the Critics Choice Award, among other prizes, while Spielberg started out strong with a Golden Globe victory. He could still feasibly win, but there isn’t enough going against the Daniels to presume that they’ll end up losing.

Should win: Daniels

Will win: Daniels

Alternate: Spielberg