It feels like this race could be over, with Everything Everywhere All at Once ahead with eleven nominations and victories from PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG. The only film that feels like a serious threat is All Quiet on the Western Front, based on the same material as a film that won this prize almost a century ago. It has nine nominations and won the top BAFTA prize, though it’s worth noting that it was also nominated in other categories there like Best Director, which it won. Early on, it seemed like Golden Globe winners The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin might be threats to take the top prize, but they’ve been winning almost nothing over the past few weeks of awards season. Top Gun: Maverick is a film that could surge, but its unexpected snub in the cinematography race and its lack of a Best Pictured bid make that less likely. Tár won many critics’ prizes but hasn’t shown that same enthusiasm with guilds and other precursors. Elvis is set to potentially win a handful of prizes but doesn’t seem like it has enough buzz to win the top prize. Avatar: The Way of Water is a lock to win the Best Visual Effects prize, but little beyond that is likely. While they have their supporters, Women Talking and Triangle of Sadness are too underrepresented across the nominations to make a serious dent.

Should win: EEAAO

Will win: EEAAO

Alternate: All Quiet on the Western Front