The Writers Guild of America won’t announce its picks until the day after Oscar nominations, and it also won’t be entirely influential since a handful of films are ineligible there. The USC Libraries Scripter Award also counted some films ineligible. The Whale is one of them, and its surprise Producers Guild of America inclusions suggests it might be safer here than its controversial reception would indicate. Even if it misses in most other categories, which would be a shame, Women Talking, the recent winner of the Critics Choice Award, shouldn’t miss here. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery has been very well-received, so it seems likely to get in for its screenplay at the very least, considering that served as the first film’s only nomination. Beyond those three, this category is competitive. Top Gun: Maverick might not be recognized for its writing, which could also be the case for tech-heavy Best Picture hopefuls like Avatar: The Way of Water and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, whose predecessors didn’t get nominated for their screenplays despite strong overall nominations performances. The strength of She Said remains a question mark but it has its best chance here, while Living may earn star Bill Nighy a nomination to go with a bid for this adaptation. All Quiet on the Western Front and Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio are expected to do well in the international and animated races, respectively, as well as the technical categories, so they could easily show up here too. Other longshots include White Noise, Bones and All, and A Man Called Otto.

Predictions: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, She Said, The Whale, White Noise, Women Talking