The Writers Guild of America won’t announce its picks until the day after Oscar nominations, and it also won’t be entirely influential since a handful of films are ineligible there. That includes one of this category’s two frontrunners, The Banshees of Inisherin, which will go head-to-head with Everything Everywhere All at Once. It would be hard to imagine The Fabelmans being omitted given its semi-autobiographical nature, but it’s possible that this is exactly where the film misses. Similarly, Tár is very popular and feels safe here. That leaves just one spot that could go to any number of films, like Best Picture hopefuls Elvis, Babylon, or Triangle of Sadness, or somewhat more under-the-radar critical darlings Decision to Leave and Aftersun. It’s definitely a longshot, but Cha Cha Real Smooth would be a fun choice.

Predictions: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at One, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness