There are 15 films on the shortlist in this category. There’s been a surprising and disappointing degree of cohesion among awards bodies so far centered on the same four films: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany), Argentina, 1985 (Argentina), Close (Belgium), and Decision to Leave (South Korea). The Critics Choice Association also added in Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico). From the rest, EO (Poland) and Saint Omer (France) have been frequently cited, and Return to Seoul (Cambodia) pulled off a surprise Best Picture win from the Boston Society of Film Critics. Holy Spider (Denmark), The Quiet Girl (Ireland), and Joyland (Pakistan) also have buzz and might garner votes. Corsage (Austria) has the advantage of star power in the form of Vicky Krieps, which may be enough to catapult it into the top five. Making it onto the shortlist means a bigger spotlight, so it’s still possible that the less likely choices, including The Blue Caftan (Morocco) and Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden), could show up. Last Film Show (India) would be a shock, especially considering it doesn’t have anywhere near the acclaim of the film that its country didn’t submit, RRR.

Predictions: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Return to Seoul