Screen Actors Guild Awards Winner Predictions – TV Categories

The Screen Actors Guild will hand out its prizes for the best of 2022 on Sunday, February 26th. Read below for a category-by-category analysis and click here to see our picks for the film races.

Ozark. (L to R) Veronica Falcón as Camila Elizondro, Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde, Laura Linney as Wendy Byrde in Season 4 Part 2 Episode 6 of Ozark. Cr. Tina Rowden/Netflix © 2022

Male Actor in a Drama Series

Jason Bateman (Ozark) has won this prize two out of three times so far, and also contended twice previously for Arrested Development and several times as part of the ensemble of both series. Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul) has four previous bids for this role, which also netted him two nominations and one win as part of the ensemble of Breaking Bad. Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul), a rare supporting contender, has five previous ensemble citations, two for Breaking Bad, two for Better Call Saul, and one for Mudbound. Jeff Bridges (The Old Man) won in 2009 for Crazy Heart and was also nominated for The Contender, True Grit, Hell or High Water, and as part of the Seabiscuit ensemble. Adam Scott (Severance) was nominated in 2019 as part of the Big Little Lies ensemble. All but Bridges are also nominated as part of their ensembles. This is the final chance for Bateman, Odenkirk, and Banks to be nominated for their shows, while Bridges and Scott are both freshman series contenders. Given that Bateman has won before, he easily could again, but this feels like the time to honor the long-working and endearing Odenkirk.

Should win: Odenkirk

Will win: Odenkirk

Alternate: Bateman

Female Actor in a Drama Series

Julia Garner (Ozark) has been nominated twice individually and as part of her ensemble, and after taking home the Emmy and Golden Globe this past year, she’s also nominated for Inventing Anna here this year. Laura Linney (Ozark) has three previous nominations for this show, plus film bids for You Can Count on Me and Kinsey, plus an ensemble bid for Mystic River and a solo win for John Adams. Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus) was nominated last year in the limited series category for this same role. While this is the first nomination for Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown), her show grabbed three slots in this category the last time it was eligible, and Gillian Anderson, Claire Foy, and John Lithgow have all taken home trophies for the series. This is the first nomination for two-time Emmy winner Zendaya (Euphoria), who is the only nominee in this category not also recognized along with her ensemble. This race feels too hard to compute given that Zendaya, Coolidge, and Garner all took home Golden Globes in separate categories, but it feels hard to beat Coolidge.

Should win: Garner

Will win: Coolidge

Alternate: Garner

Male Actor in a Comedy Series

This category welcomes back two nominees from last year, Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) and Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building), as well a two-time nominee, Bill Hader (Barry), whose show is back on the air for the first time since 2019. He’s joined by his terrific costar Anthony Carrigan (Barry), who was nominated twice as part of his show’s ensemble. Rounding out the lineup is Jeremy Allen White (The Bear), the recent Golden Globe winner for his freshman series and a first-time SAG nominee. All five men are also nominated as part of their ensembles. Previously, when four performers came from only two shows, the fifth nominee won in the case of Tony Shalhoub and a clear favorite won last year with Jason Sudeikis. It seems distinctly possible that White takes this for both reasons.

Should win: Hader

Will win: White

Alternate: Hader


Female Actor in a Comedy Series

This category welcomes back three previous nominees and invites two freshmen. Jean Smart (Hacks) won this prize last year and was also honored for Mare of Easttown, and she has a past ensemble bid for 24 too. Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) won this prize in 2018 and was nominated the following year, and in addition to corresponding ensemble citations both those years, was also nominated as part of the cast of House of Cards in 2014. Christina Applegate (Dead to Me) was cited for the first two seasons of her current show and three times for Samantha Who? Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) and Jenna Ortega (Wednesday) are first-time SAG nominees. Brunson and Smart, whose are the likely frontrunners for this prize, are also nominated as part of their ensembles.

Should win: Brunson

Will win: Smart

Alternate: Brunson

Male Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series

Though his only wins come from two ensemble prizes for The Office and one for Little Miss Sunshine, Steve Carell (The Patient) has a pretty impressive nomination record with SAG, including six bids for The Office and mentions for Foxcatcher, Battle of the Sexes, and The Morning Show. Evan Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), this year’s Golden Globe winner, was nominated last year for Mare of Easttown. Taron Egerton (Black Bird) was nominated in 2019 for Rocketman. Sam Elliott (1983) earned individual and ensemble bids for A Star is Born in 2018, and Paul Walter Hauser was an ensemble nominee for Da 5 Bloods in 2020. Double nominees are not at all a rarity in this category and one from among them often wins.

Should win: Egerton

Will win: Peters

Alternate: Egerton

Female Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series

Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) is a triple nominee this year, earning her third individual and ensemble bids for Ozark. Jessica Chastain (George and Tammy) won last year for The Eyes of Tammy Faye and was previously nominated for The Help and Zero Dark Thirty. Emily Blunt (The English) was a double nominee in 2018, nominated for Mary Poppins Returns and winning for A Quiet Place, and she was also nominated in 2016 for The Girl on the Train. Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout), who has won the Emmy, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice Award, was previously nominated as part of the Les Miserables ensemble. This is the first nomination for Niecy Nash-Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), who won the Critics Choice Award in the supporting category.

Should win: Garner

Will win: Seyfried

Alternate: Garner

Tom Hollander and Jennifer Coolidge in THE WHITE LOTUS. Photograph by Courtesy of HBO

Ensemble in a Drama Series

The Crown is a formidable contender, nominated for the fifth time and a two-time defending champion, even though the show didn’t air new episodes in 2021. It is down to just one nominated performer this year after having four cited in 2020. Ozark is back for the third time with all three lead performers nominated again, and this is also the third nomination for Better Call Saul, which for the first time has another actor (Jonathan Banks) nominated aside from star Bob Odenkirk. This is the second season for The White Lotus but its first time being eligible in this race, and it has one performer nominated, as does freshman series Severance. Both Better Call Saul and Ozark have ended, a status which gave Breaking Bad its first and only trophy and The Sopranos a bookend following a win for its freshman season.

Should win: Severance

Will win: The White Lotus

Alternate: Better Call Saul

Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Two of last year’s nominees are back for their sophomore outings, Hacks and Only Murders in the Building, with exactly the same performers (Jean Smart, Steve Martin, and Martin Short) nominated again. Barry contended for its first two seasons in 2018 and 2019, and returns now for season three with stars Bill Hader and Anthony Carrigan also cited. Freshman series Abbott Elementary and The Bear each have their primary stars nominated. Large, very populated ensembles have tended to win this prize, and it’s not clear whether there is a particular frontrunner this year. All would be great choices!

Should win: Hacks

Will win: Hacks

Alternate: Abbott Elementary

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